Obsidian

Live Performance Tracking

📈 Trading Performance

Total Trades
245
Win Rate
82.45%
Net P/L
$30093.15
Sharpe Ratio
8.31
Max Drawdown
$1264.20
Avg Daily P/L
$173.95

Strategy Overview

Obsidian is a crypto futures strategy prototyped in early 2025. Its strategy logic, decision flow, and trade management are structured around a tightly controlled framework designed to balance adaptability and robustness.

  • Operates on intraday timeframes ranging from 15 minutes to 2 hours
  • Entry signals are generated by an engine combining a small set of technical indicators with a reinforcement learning (RL) layer, trained directly on over 5 years of historical backtests
  • Large Language Models (LLMs) — including OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepSeek — are used to interpret short-term market context (typically the next few hours or end-of-day window) and dynamically determine Take Profit, Stop Loss, and Trailing Stop levels in real time

1) Narrow signal framework (indicator-light)

  • Oscillator-based triggers designed to detect short-term overextension and mean-reversion opportunities
  • Trend and momentum confirmation layers used to avoid structurally weak or low-quality market regimes

2) Reinforcement Learning layer (narrow ML, focused role)

  • Accepts or rejects potential trade setups based on detected market regime
  • Filters out choppy, low-signal, or unfavorable market conditions
  • Dynamically reduces aggressiveness during periods of elevated volatility or unstable price structure
  • Optionally modulates exposure sizing based on internal confidence metrics

3) LLM-managed exits (TP / SL per trade)

  • Adaptive Take Profit and Stop Loss levels derived from volatility regimes and key market structure zones
  • Context-aware calibration based on alignment (or divergence) between macro and short-term conditions
  • Trade-by-trade risk management enforced within strict, predefined guardrails

4) Multi-timeframe blend (short-term + macro context)

  • Short-term execution layer focused on precise timing and entry efficiency
  • Daily macro trend context used for directional bias, filtering, and regime alignment

Strategy Workflow & Mechanism

Market Data Input

Multi-timeframe price action analysis

Short-term
15m – 2h timeframes
Macro context
Daily trend alignment

Signal Generation Engine

Indicator-light framework with technical confluence

Oscillators
Overextension detection
Trend Filter
Momentum confirmation
Mean Reversion
Short-term setups

ML/RL Layer

Trained on 5+ years of backtest data

Signal validation ACCEPT / REJECT
Regime detection & quality assessment
Filter choppy markets
Low-signal rejection
Volatility adaptation
Dynamic aggressiveness

Trade Execution

Position entry
Precise timing on validated signal
Exposure sizing
Confidence-based modulation

LLM Risk Manager

OpenAI • Anthropic • DeepSeek

Dynamic TP/SL
Volatility-aware levels
Context analysis
Intraday market structure

Active Position Management

Real-time monitoring with adaptive exits

TP
Take Profit
SL
Stop Loss
TS
Trailing Stop